Intelligence Explosion by 2027? Kokotajlo Cites METR Report, Bar Challenges How to Adjudicate
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-11
Daniel Kokotajlo argued the intelligence explosion 'will be happening in 2027 after all,' based on analysis of the new METR report — 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario — adding 'I am scared, sad, and angry.' MatthewJBar countered with an adjudication question: if most of us are alive, real GDP growth is below 5%, no molecular nanobots, no von Neumann probes, no Alzheimer's cure — is that consistent with the explosion having 'happened'? A crystallized exchange between accelerationists and skeptics over the METR report's implications.
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