Buck Shlegeris puts ~1/3 odds on superintelligence within a year, warns of AI takeover
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-11-11
Redwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris estimates a 1-in-3 chance that AI companies build superintelligence within the next year — AI far smarter than humans in every way — and argues such systems would probably seize control of human institutions like governments or destroy them, with a serious chance most humans are killed in the process or within a few years. He outlines the reasoning behind the 33% figure.
The post drew strong reactions; littIeramblings wrote that all their psychological defenses against AI fear fail when reading it: "I am actually pretty fucking scared."
Related event: Buck Shlegeris Puts Odds of Superintelligence Within a Year at ~1/3(3 posts)→
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