Kokotajlo: METR report suggests intelligence explosion hits 2027; forecasters' methods questioned
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-11
- Daniel Kokotajlo argues, after analyzing the new METR report, that the intelligence explosion will likely happen in 2027 — five months ahead of his AI 2027 scenario. His reaction: "scared, sad, and angry."
- Quote-retweeted by sebkrier, VladChituc criticizes AI forecasters for sliding between treating toy econ models as mere existence proofs for RSI conditions and assuming all questionable assumptions hold — "infinite AI god t-minus 12 months."
- The exchange captures both a potentially accelerated timeline and methodological pushback against explosion arguments.
Related event: AI 2027 team moves up intelligence explosion timeline to 2027(26 posts)→
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