Anthropic's IPO haircut to ~$1T: open-source models squeeze from both sides
Xianbao_QIAN · x · 2026-11-11
Anthropic's IPO range of $70–78 implies about $1.0T ($1.3–1.4T fully diluted), well below the $1.5–2T discussed months ago. The author argues open-source models pressure it from two sides: OpenRouter open-model tokens exploded from 2T/week in January to 146T in November, 90%+ on Chinese models, and self-hosting demand pushed GPU rental prices up (H100 +25% YoY, B200 +50% since May), weakening Anthropic's datacenter leverage. With OpenAI and Gemini competing, Anthropic must list soon — converting a growing compute bill into permanent capital while ARR still grows (+7.2% m/m in October, $82B run-rate).
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