AI Futures model missed the other way: predicted 1.3x speedup, METR found ~2x
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-11
The author examines two notable forecasting misses: AI 2027's original model was too bullish on time horizons, while its more conservative successor, the AI Futures model, has now missed significantly in the opposite direction — it expected 1.3x acceleration by now, but METR found 2x.
Conclusion: no model has avoided substantial misses, but that shouldn't lead to assuming recursive self-improvement is unlikely. Instead, remain uncertain and hedge across the variety of model scenarios available.
Related event: METR Measures 2x AI R&D Speedup as Forecasting Models Miss the Mark(2 posts)→
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