Metaculus AGI forecast jumps from 2033 to mid-2030 as forecasters turn radical
Afinetheorem · x · 2026-11-11
Metaculus' AGI forecast (including general cognition and robotics) has moved from Winter 2033 to Summer 2030 in recent months, suggesting experienced forecasters now expect radical transformation sooner. Quoting Daniel Kokotajlo: analysis of the new METR report implies an intelligence explosion in 2027, five months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario — he is 'scared, sad, and angry.'
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