AI Futures Project: Intelligence explosion moved up to 2027 after METR 2x acceleration finding
SamuelAlbanie · x · 2026-11-11
The AI Futures Project (Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, et al.) published a Q3.5 timelines update concluding the intelligence explosion will likely happen in 2027.
- Key evidence: METR estimates Anthropic is now making AI progress 2x its historical rate (1.3x–3x range), with 80% of the acceleration attributed to AI itself — implying a pace 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario.
- New forecasts: All authors now expect Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) to arrive in 2027 absent deliberate slowdown; previously even the most bullish author gave only 50% before 2029.
- TED-AI: AIs automating all white-collar work get a 35–65% chance of arriving before 2028.
- Policy implication: If SAR is coming in 2027, an industry-wide pause or strict pacing is urgently needed, since companies are not on track to align a SAR.
- The accompanying chart shows AIFP forecasters' TED-AI timelines collapsing from 2050s since 2020 to Sep 2027–Sep 2028 now.
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