Ex-Meta researcher predicts a hard ceiling of 150-200B tokens for the SWE market
DimitrisPapail · x · 2026-11-11
Dimitris Papailiopoulos（前 Meta 研究员、现为创业公司创始人）在 X 上表示，他预见 SWE（软件工程）token 市场将存在一个约 1500-2000 亿（150-200B）的硬性上限，届时需要突破性的新东西（something beyond it）才能继续增长。
在回复讨论中，有人问及如果 SWE 这块蛋糕到顶，增量会流向哪里——游戏、机器人？并指出其余市场已被 Anthropic 的 Opus 模型饱和占据。
More from coding & agent
- SF developer meetup 'Who's Watching the Agents?' to cover agent observability — davidcrawshaw · 2026-11-11
- Supabase lands in Expo EAS CLI: one command wires a backend into every environment — dshukertjr · 2026-11-11
- ComfyUI Challenge Winner ComfyArt: Open-Source Fully Local AI Design Canvas — bfl_ai · 2026-11-11
- Letting an agent self-improve its own harness daily: resumed runs 7→77, memory noise 94%→0 — AccBalanced · 2026-11-11
- One Photo of a Toddler's Playroom Becomes a Racing Game, Then the Whole House — every · 2026-11-11
- Workshop moment: user tells coding agent 'you jsut fo it i odnt care' — bushibuilds · 2026-11-11