AI Futures model projects ASI by Oct 2027, matching the original AI 2027 scenario
Snoo-75663 · reddit · 2026-11-11
The AI Futures project (team behind the AI 2027 paper) released an interactive quantitative takeoff model, calibrated to co-author Daniel Kokotajlo's median estimates (Aug 2026), that roughly matches the original AI 2027 scenario.
Key projected dates: Automated Coder (AC) arrives Dec 23, 2026; Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) Jun 8, 2027; ASI Oct 14, 2027. Key parameters: 3.53x serial coding uplift as of Aug 2026, 2.6 months for that uplift to double, 3.97x ratio of top-to-median researcher value per experiment, β=0.317 returns to software R&D. ECI growth accelerates to 1.16x by Nov 2026. The site offers adjustable parameters and forecast probability distributions.
More from AGI Musings
- RLHF Co-creator: LLMs Are Built for Assistance, Picking the Right Task Is Key to Automation — FinanceYF5 · 2026-11-12
- He gave up Harvard Law and an Anthropic offer to fight AI takeover — and got mocked — AaronBergman18 · 2026-11-12
- Vertex exec calls AI-cures-all claims "complete BS": 50 AI firms, zero working drugs — AlexTensor · 2026-11-12
- tinygrad slams EA: 'any means justify their ends' culture doomed to an SBF-style blowup — mark_k · 2026-11-12
- A painter asks: when an AI image moves you, where does the meaning live? — indianbull88 · 2026-11-12
- Veteran developer asks: are years of intellectual skill-building suddenly worthless? — sushixsx · 2026-11-12