2027 forecast: 5 years of AI progress in one year, ~20% risk of point of no return
kimmonismus · x · 2026-11-11
Romeo van der Dean forecasts (50% CI: 3-15) that 5 years of AI progress — a GPT-3-to-Fable 5.2/Model 4-equivalent jump — will happen within 2027 alone. His projections: full AI R&D automation (AI labs could fire all employees without slowing down), 40% chance of AI better than humans at every cognitive task, an AI incident far worse than Hugging Face's (>$1B damages, >50 deaths), and 20% chance of crossing a 'point of no return' toward irreversible AI takeover. Shared by kimmonismus with sourcing links.
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