AI Futures Project moves up timeline: top-human AI researchers possible by 2027 as METR finds 1.9x progress acceleration
AccBalanced · x · 2026-11-11
The AI Futures Project now forecasts AI matching top human AI researchers will likely arrive in 2027 absent a major slowdown — about 5 months ahead of its AI 2027 scenario.
The update draws on a new METR report: as of October 2026, benchmark scores (AECI metric) are growing at roughly 1.9x the pre-October-2025 rate (95% CI 1.5x–2.8x), partly based on internal Anthropic models and benchmarks METR was allowed to share, with AI itself contributing much of the acceleration. Daniel Kokotajlo says this implies the intelligence explosion is happening in 2027 — and that he is "scared, sad, and angry."
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