METR estimates ~2x acceleration of Anthropic's progress; SAIR forecast moves to 2027
daniel_mac8 · x · 2026-11-11
METR estimates nearly 2x acceleration in Anthropic's research progress due to AI. Forecaster Eli Lifland calls it a big deal: his median for Superhuman AI Researcher moved from 2030 to 2027, and he is "very worried" humanity might lose control of its future within 3-12 months. Daniel MacKinnon shared it with a philosophical aside: "Control is an illusion."
Related event: AI 2027 Team Moves Up Timeline: Intelligence Explosion May Come in 2027(35 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- The worst AI use signals you don't care about things you should care about — Afinetheorem · 2026-11-12
- Worst AI use: signaling you don't care about things you should — Afinetheorem · 2026-11-12
- Stanford HAI blueprint: 56 US agencies report 3,611 AI use cases, evaluation lags — StanfordHAI · 2026-11-12
- Fleuret amplifies debate: AI can't slash wet-lab experiments in unmapped biology — francoisfleuret · 2026-11-12
- Recursive bets on open-endedness: agents running massive parallel experiments like scientist communities — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12
- Recursive's Tim Shi maps recursive self-improvement: from learning data to discovering architectures — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12