Polymarket puts just 11% odds on a US AI safety bill this year
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-11
Polymarket's market on a US AI safety bill gives only 10-11% odds of enactment by end of 2026, rising to 83% by June 30, 2027. Qualifying bills must impose release bans/review mandates, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements on AI developers or deployers. Context in the thread: the AI Futures Project warns an "intelligence explosion" could arrive in 2027, with progress running 5 months ahead of projections.
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