AI progress is now a one-year forecast — the 'no track record' excuse is gone
peterwildeford · x · 2026-11-11
Peter Wildeford notes that skeptics used to dismiss multi-year AI forecasts because no one had a good track record on them. But the crazy AI progress has now become a one-year forecast — a horizon where forecasters do have well-measured track records — making near-term AI predictions far more credible and testable.
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