AI 2027 authors' Q3.5 update: forecasters converge on intelligence explosion arriving in 2027
Specialist_Dark_3668 · reddit · 2026-11-11
The AI 2027 team published a Q3.5 timelines update asserting the intelligence explosion will happen in 2027 after all. The accompanying chart shows AIFP forecasters (Eli, Thomas, Daniel, Romeo, Brendan) first pushing out their estimates for Top-Expert-Dominating AI through late 2025, then sharply pulling them forward: by November 2026, all forecasts converge between September 2027 (Daniel) and September 2028 (Romeo)—a major acceleration from the 2030-2036 range seen in late 2025.
More from AGI Musings
- Claim: Daniel Kokotajlo staked equity to write AI 2027 in exchange for not criticizing OpenAI — sjgadler · 2026-11-11
- Does SF's artist exodus explain the weak consumer AI story? A spicy debate — round · 2026-11-11
- AGI red-lines advocate cites UN advocacy with 5+ former heads of state amid acceleration spat — danfaggella · 2026-11-11
- "No humanoid robot is being built by humanoids" — Matthew Chang's paradox — MatthewChang · 2026-11-11
- Author clarifies AI-and-fiction book isn't about replacing artists — _akpiper · 2026-11-11
- SayashK, Bommasani, Narayanan launch STABL non-profit on AI societal adaptation — sayashk · 2026-11-11