AI Futures now sees ~5 years of AI progress in 2027, a huge revision in 3 months
Hesamation · x · 2026-11-11
AI Futures Project updated its forecast: we're likely to see roughly 5 years' worth of historical AI progress compressed into 2027. Surprisingly, just 3 months ago even its most aggressive model gave <4% probability of AI accelerating progress by 1.7x by now. The biggest driver of the revision is METR's recent report on Anthropic. Charts show model runs matching METR imply a median 4.2–4.9 years of progress in 2027, versus 1.0–1.4 in 2025–26. Even professional forecasters are struggling to keep up with the pace.
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