Zvi calls out Anthropic's "less than 2x" claim: fitted CI reaches 2.28x
TheZvi · x · 2026-11-11
Less than a week after the METR acceleration report, Zvi publicly challenges Anthropic's claim that AI progress is accelerating "less than 2x": the report's own fitted slope-change estimate is 1.88x with a 95% CI of 1.62x–2.28x, and 32 of 100 refits reach 2x or more—undercutting the company's framing of the number.
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