Polymarket odds put AI solving Beal's Conjecture by 2026 at 16%, P vs NP at 5.7%
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-10
Polymarket launched prediction markets on which math problems AI will solve in 2026, with $67.5K volume. Implied probabilities: Beal's Conjecture 16%, Ramsey Number R(5,5) 24%, Hadwiger-Nelson 15%, Yang-Mills 14%, Hodge Conjecture 10%, BSD 9%, Twin Prime 9%, Riemann Hypothesis 7%, Collatz 7%, P versus NP just 5.7%. Deadline is Dec 31, 2026 — a live crowd-sourced pricing of frontier AI math reasoning progress.
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