Toby Ord endorses '4 years of AI progress in 6 months': GPT-7 to GPT-10 within 2027
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-10
Responding to Ben Todd's summary of Tom Davidson's takeoff model — roughly 4 years of AI progress compressed into 6 months — Oxford philosopher Toby Ord called it plausible. Todd sketches the scenario as GPT-7 in April 2027 giving way to GPT-10 by December 2027, with systems able to outperform human experts on most 1-year tasks, be superhuman at much R&D, and possibly learn in-context. A notable data point in the fast-takeoff debate.
Related event: Researchers envision AI compressing 4 years of progress into 6 months(2 posts)→
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