Toby Ord: AI progress is logistic, so Remote Labour Index saturation charts should use a logistic axis
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-10
Ben Todd argued the Remote Labour Index (real 30h Upwork tasks, human-graded) is on track to saturate by April 2027. Philosopher Toby Ord pushes back on the chart itself:
- AI progress is usually roughly logistic, meaning time from 5% to 50% equals time from 50% to 95%;
- so the graph should use a logistic y-axis, not a log one — otherwise the extrapolated saturation date is distorted.
A characteristic methodological dispute that directly changes how benchmark-saturation forecasts should be read.
More from AGI Musings
- Lila Sciences open-endedness team releases 4 preprints on the creative paradox — ChengleiSi · 2026-11-11
- AI Trials Observatory launches: 93 RCTs on how AI affects mental health and beliefs — DG_Rand · 2026-11-11
- Strogatz & Townsend's new book Big Math tackles math's Faustian bargain with AI — stevenstrogatz · 2026-11-11
- Ofir Press: Saying tokens replace labor is like saying computers would in 1980 — OfirPress · 2026-11-11
- AI 2027 authors update timelines: most forecasts converge on Sep 2028 for expert-dominating AI — The_Scout1255 · 2026-11-11
- Report: AI agent incident logs sit with the culprits — Walrus proposes tamper-evident onchain records — 0xSammy · 2026-11-11