Philosopher Toby Ord: METR's task-length doubling rate may be optimistic
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-10
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord, discussing AI capability timeline forecasts, said a 60%–85% probability range seems reasonable to him. He noted the key question is the amount of slope change—if larger/better pretraining runs cause any capability jump, the slope change would be noticeably lower than METR's 2x task-length doubling estimate. His interlocutor considered 85% also fairly reasonable.
Related event: Philosopher Toby Ord says METR task-length extrapolation may be optimistic(2 posts)→
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