AI 2027 debate: nitpicking 2028 timelines misses the policy gap
dzsudzu · x · 2026-11-10
Replying to someone who audited the AI 2027 scenario's 2028 timeline probabilities, dzsudzu argues the precision is a red herring: since reasoning models arrived, the scenario can't be confidently ruled out, and the far bigger issue is the gaping hole between what the safety community believes and the actual policy landscape. Whether 2028 timelines are 10%, 25% or 50% doesn't change that core conclusion.