AI safety researcher puts ASI odds at ~25% by end of 2027, ~50% by end of 2028
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-10
In his thread, AI safety researcher austinc3301 offers a quantified timeline: RSI is deeply confusing and timelines are very sensitive to takeoff-model parameters, but his bottom line is roughly a 25% chance of ASI by end of 2027 (50% by end of 2028), assuming no pacing or policy intervention.
He stresses these numbers carry deep uncertainty over model parameters and shouldn't be read as precise forecasts.
Related event: Safety researcher updates ASI timeline: ~25% odds by end of 2027(6 posts)→
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