AI R&D speedup debate: METR reading implies ~4x, author's estimate ~2.5x
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-10
The author compares estimates of how much AI accelerates algorithmic research: Ryan's reading of METR gives 4x, while his own estimate is 2.5x (80% CI: 1.3–4.6x), roughly on AI 2027's schedule (2x by late 2026, 3x by Jan 2027) and well above the AI Futures Model's 1.3x for today.
Related event: Safety researcher updates ASI timeline: ~25% odds by end of 2027(6 posts)→
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