METR's redacted evidence 'significantly informed' its 2x finding — common criticisms misread the report
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-10
Responding to major criticisms of the METR report: several misread it, e.g. treating the 2x as researchers being 2x more productive rather than capability progress being 2x faster. METR itself said redacted evidence "significantly informed" its view of the 2x speedup, so alternatives like a one-off jump, RL free lunch, or a scale artifact may already be ruled out by their data — outsiders can only infer so much from public figures.
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