AI timelines debate: modeling choices defensible, but don't adopt them wholesale
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-10
Commenting on Ajeya and Ryan's AI takeoff timelines analysis, the author argues it would be unwise to adopt their view as an all-things-considered conclusion on AI timelines—yet it does follow from a reasonable set of takeoff modeling choices. Neither they nor METR made any big, obvious mistakes, he notes, underscoring how live the timelines debate remains.
Related event: Debate Erupts Over METR's Claimed 2x R&D Speedup and AI Timelines(2 posts)→
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