Polymarket puts only 10% odds on a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-10
Polymarket launched a market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill: only 10-11% odds by December 31, 2026, rising to 83% by June 30, 2027.
The market rules define a qualifying bill as containing at least one substantive constraint on AI developers/deployers: release bans or mandatory federal review, training restrictions (data/compute/parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements; provisions governing only federal government use don't count. About 500 people are active in the market's chat.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Only ~11% Chance of US AI Safety Bill by End of 2026(3 posts)→
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