Toby Ord: monitoring the research-spend curve could signal an AI explosion

tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-10

In his exchange with Tom Davidson, Toby Ord adds: if the research-spend curve must break for an intelligence explosion to happen, monitoring it could give useful early signal. Measured as actual compute dollars, the curve hasn't broken so far.

Related event: Toby Ord and Tom Davidson Debate R&D Spending Curves in Intelligence Explosion Models(4 posts)→

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