AI era drawdowns are shallower and faster than dot-com: 17.8% vs 22.9% average
pdamodaran · x · 2026-11-09
DalalBytes compares index drawdowns between the dot-com era (1996-2001) and the AI era (since Jan 2023): 32 drawdowns of 10%+ vs 17, average depth 22.9% vs 17.8%, worst episodes -83.9% (SOX, 2000-02) vs -39.7% (SOX, 2024-25), and average peak-to-trough duration of 162 vs 71 days. Era-one leaders all fell at least 60% (Cisco -89.3%), while the deepest AI-era leader drawdown is AMD at -63% and NVIDIA sits at -36.9%. With Nasdaq-100 now 13.6% off its October peak, the author's verdict: this is a correction inside the AI wave, not the end of it.
Related event: AI Selloff Is a Correction, Not a Bubble Burst, Analysts Say(2 posts)→
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