Naive read: OpenAI 80% horizon at 15 min, doubling only every 585 days
BasilHalperin · x · 2026-11-09
BasilHalperin shows Method 1 (reading the 50% point straight off the chart): the 50% time horizon is 10 hours with 68-day doubling, while the 80% horizon is only 15 minutes with 585-day doubling — low and rising very slowly.
This matches ramez's independent read of the OpenAI data: almost no progress at p80, linear progress at lower success rates. ramez cautions that we don't know which internal models were used when, limiting interpretation.
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