METR says ~80% of current AI acceleration comes from AI itself; Toby Ord pushes back
EvanHub · x · 2026-11-09
- Toby Ord cites METR's report arguing Anthropic's recent capability acceleration may stem from RSI, but notes METR can't confidently rule out an alternative: a step change from the larger Mythos pretrain.
- bshlgrs argues Ord misses the point: the capabilities graph is merely the only unredacted evidence, not METR's core basis. METR states "a majority (perhaps ≈80%) of the current (October 2026) acceleration is due to AI," while late-2025 acceleration was likely influenced by non-AI factors.
- Crucially, an appendix titled "New internal models make a permanent slope change look more plausible than a one-time jump at Mythos Preview" shows METR considered and rejected Ord's hypothesis for redacted reasons, rather than overlooking it.
Related event: Researchers debate robustness of METR's 1.9x AI acceleration finding(16 posts)→
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