Alignment Forum Essay Argues Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines 'Never Works', Undermining Bio-Anchors Forecast
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-09
A new Alignment Forum piece, Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works, revisits Ajeya Cotra's bio-anchors report, which forecast transformative AI at >10% by 2036, 50% by 2055, and 80% by 2100 (Cotra personally moved to 2040 in 2022). The author recalls that after Eliezer Yudkowsky's rebuttal, the community gradually updated toward skepticism of the method. He notes his own shift: from arguing in 2022-2025 that short timelines justified reallocating funding and work, to now questioning whether the evidence that updated everyone was ever solid — a critique of extrapolating AGI timelines from biological benchmarks.
Related event: Alignment Forum Essay Critiques Bio-Anchors AGI Timeline Estimates(2 posts)→
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