Returns per doubling of AI R&D spend are rising: +8.2 to +12.9 points per doubling after METR breakpoint
Jsevillamol · x · 2026-11-08
Quoting Cheryl Woo: while returns per dollar of AI R&D are declining, returns per doubling of R&D expense are increasing — the former matters more since it determines the elasticity RSI depends on. The chart shows progress per doubling of cumulative nominal R&D spend since Jan 2024: +8.2 points per doubling from end-2024 to the METR breakpoint (Q3 2025, $6bn cumulative), rising to +12.9 points per doubling after (1.6x), with data extending to Q3 2026 ($28bn cumulative).
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