Toby Ord: priors favor level jump from pre-training, slope gain from AI R&D
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-08
- Toby Ord adds his prior on AI capability trends: a big new pre-training run should create a level effect, and AI-assisted R&D some slope improvement — which also best fits his thread's analysis.
- Still, he calls any update from the AECI evidence "very weak and merely suggestive."
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