METR rejected the jump-with-same-slope hypothesis, not Toby's mixed model, argues researcher
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-08
In an exchange with @bshlgrs, JacquesThibs argues that METR's report only rejected the "one-time jump followed by the same slope" hypothesis, and never addressed Toby's mixed model of a one-time jump plus an increased slope — so claims that METR considered and rejected Toby's hypothesis are wrong.
Related event: Researchers Debate METR's AI Capability Jump Findings(4 posts)→
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