Hard takeoff is 'pseudoscience': practitioner pushes back on RSI hype
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-08
Responding to a report on AI R&D automation, sebkrier argues that foom or hard takeoff is essentially pseudoscience: current gains are mostly AI assistance rather than closed-loop autonomous R&D, already priced into his world model. He doesn't expect exponential gains across all capabilities, saying ecologically valid non-coding/math evals or the ECI index might move him. MemeticTheory adds four forces shaping lumpy S-curve takeoff, centered on TAM saturation and what fraction of global revenue a few companies (e.g., Anthropic post-Opus 4.6) can capture.
Related event: Anthropic Researcher Calls Intelligence Explosion Pseudoscience(2 posts)→
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