Speculation: Anthropic's recent releases are all distills, Opus 5.5 may be Model 2 Early
haider1 · x · 2026-11-08
Blogger haider reads METR's AECI capability chart to argue Anthropic hasn't shipped a non-distilled model since fable 5. Opus 5.5 lands very close to internal Model 2 Early, suggesting it's an early distill of Model 2, while fable 5.5 would be the full Model 2. fable 5.1 looks like a further-trained checkpoint of mythos 5 rather than a new pretrain. The chart also shows benchmark scores accelerating at 1.9× the pre-Oct 2025 rate once internal models are included (95% CI 1.5–2.8), from +15/yr to +29/yr. Unverified speculation.
More from Models
- LiquidAI ships official NVFP4 quantized weights for LFM3-1.7B and VL-2B — JosephJacks_ · 2026-11-08
- Qwen-4-27B early checkpoint tops GameFeel Bench, best open-source result by far — teortaxesTex · 2026-11-08
- 'Rank bottleneck' means two very different things in linear algebra vs systems optimization — kalomaze · 2026-11-08
- Double-exponential fit suggests model time horizons could hit ~80 work-years by end of 2027 — scaling01 · 2026-11-08
- Stanford Prof Anshul Kundaje on Weight Space Editing: Replicated Across Models, Limits Still Unclear — anshulkundaje · 2026-11-08
- Jev search site processes 1M+ tokens for $0.00 — priced per billion tokens — HanchungLee · 2026-11-08