METR calls Anthropic risk report misleading: 1.97x AI acceleration framed as 'less than 2x'
sjgadler · x · 2026-11-08
METR publicly compared the public and redacted versions of Anthropic's risk report, arguing its framing is misleading:
- The public report says leading indicators point to meaningful acceleration starting early-to-mid 2025, "though by less than a factor of 2."
- METR's calculation from the private report's figures implies an acceleration rate of 1.97x — a number that doesn't appear in the private report; METR derived it by combining the report's estimates of current and historical rates of progress.
- METR argues readers would interpret "less than a factor of 2" as meaningfully below 2, when "around 2" would be more accurate.
- METR's own analysis gives a reasonable range of 1.3–2.8x with substantial methodological uncertainty; Anthropic redacted this discussion from the report.
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