AI safety researcher: METR 2x report matches my two-year-old prediction

JeffLadish · x · 2026-11-08

AI safety researcher Jeff Ladish asks Lisa Thiergart whether ASI within a year is likely. Thiergart says she's surprised some Berkeley AI safety groups treat the METR 2x report as such a big update, since it matches what she has predicted for two years and why she chose to work on security—suggesting they leaned too heavily on AIFP forecasts instead of talking to people in SF.

Related event: METR capability-doubling report sends shockwaves and splits AI safety community(6 posts)→

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