Task horizons reportedly running a month ahead of the AI 2027 scenario
ChrisGPT · x · 2026-11-08
The poster argues reality is tracking about a month ahead of the well-known AI 2027 scenario, which many had dismissed as too aggressive. The attached METR-style task-horizon chart (as of 2026-11-05, 80% success on software tasks) shows the AI 2027 scenario at 36h for Nov 2026, vs. Epoch's ECI estimate of 9h (GPT-6 Astra) and an AECI estimate of 20h (Claude Opus 5.5), with an exponential upward trend.
Related event: AI Progress Reportedly Outpacing the AI-2027 Forecast(5 posts)→
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