Sampling 343 SemiAnalysis posts: its implied trades lose to the S&P by $248

vitaliychiley · x · 2026-11-07

To test whether a $500/year SemiAnalysis subscription was worth it, a user sampled 343 blogs from 2020–26 and split $500 across trades implied by the posts (e.g., shorting GOOGL when Dylan said its 'odds of reaching SOTA again have dropped to zero'). Result: SemiAnalysis strategy returned $927.47 vs $1,175.22 for the S&P — an alpha of exactly −$247.75. Chart included; a public data-driven dunk on the prominent analyst, and Dylan Chen's reaction thread followed.

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