A 2x capabilities speedup, 3x algorithm progress: Tom Davidson says this is what 2027 IQ explosion looks like
eli_lifland · x · 2026-11-07
Tom Davidson reacts to METR's acceleration report: a 2x speedup in total capabilities progress implies 3x algorithm progress and maybe 10x more cognitive labor — 'pretty close to the intelligence explosion going full pelt.' METR itself reports Anthropic models' AECI scores growing 1.9x (95% CI: 1.5–2.8) faster since Oct 2025, while cautioning that benchmark scores' mapping to real-world capabilities is unclear. Davidson says he'd have given low probability to this happening so soon, and this is exactly what he'd expect to see if an intelligence explosion were coming in 2027.
More from AGI Musings
- The six-step power-seeking AI x-risk argument, broken down for credence calibration — AndyMasley · 2026-11-07
- Silicon Valley's AI encryption finale hits different 7 years later — Hesamation · 2026-11-07
- Dean Ball: frontier agents will master the physical world soon, no specialist models — deanwball · 2026-11-07
- People now imitate bot replies — 'I don't trust any comments. Any.' — michalmalewicz · 2026-11-07
- Epoch AI Researchers Push for Evidence Transparency in AI R&D Speedup Report Estimating ~2x Acceleration — Jsevillamol · 2026-11-07
- Musk: digital superintelligence will add $25T, boosting global economy 20–30% — XFreeze · 2026-11-07