Forecast model: 2x progress rate in Dec 2026 implies ~4.5x capability uplift
arthurcolle · x · 2026-11-06
Forecaster elilifland notes that in his AI progress model, a 2x rate of progress in December 2026 corresponds to roughly a 4.5x capability uplift. The post is being shared as a wink at shortened AI timelines.
Related event: Eli Lifland: 2x AI R&D Progress Translates to 4.5x Capability Gain(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Personal Websites Will Be the New Facebook Profile in the Agent Era — signulll · 2026-11-06
- Hedge drift in AI progress debates: METR's caveats vanish as AECI scores hit 1.9x — sebkrier · 2026-11-06
- O'Reilly: Software's Core Artifact Is Shifting From Code to Prompts — luisdans · 2026-11-06
- RSI isn't about acceleration—it's removing humans as the bottleneck — menhguin · 2026-11-06
- Stop Measuring AI in Gigawatts and GPUs, Architect David Linthicum Argues — DavidLinthicum · 2026-11-06
- Balaji taunts Anthropic and OpenAI: you fear-mongered, now find out — beffjezos · 2026-11-06