METR: Anthropic's model capability gains have ~2x'd, no bottlenecks observed
corbtt · x · 2026-11-06
Per an METR report shared by corbtt: as of October 2026, Anthropic is likely improving model capabilities on well-specified tasks at 2x the historical rate of March 2024–October 2025 (uncertainty: 1.3x–3x). Much of the acceleration is likely attributable to Anthropic's extensive use of AI for R&D. Crucially, no bottlenecks or strong diminishing returns have been observed, implying risk of even faster acceleration — though important bottlenecks may be missed.
More from AGI Musings
- Bindu Reddy: US trying to ban AI is 'shooting itself in the foot' and cedes dominance — bindureddy · 2026-11-06
- METR: No clear bottlenecks seen, capability progress could accelerate further in 12 months — paulnovosad · 2026-11-06
- Photon founder: the super agent won't eat the world, build with variants baked in — kirbyman01 · 2026-11-06
- Greg Brockman: AI to drive major biology, health breakthroughs in 12-18 months — ChrisGPT · 2026-11-06
- Ethan Mollick: an AI stock downturn won't derail the AI trajectory — emollick · 2026-11-06
- Model value as conditional entropy removed: why rising world entropy hurts model companies — xiaosun86 · 2026-11-06