METR Backs Anthropic's ~2x R&D Acceleration Claim, Sees ~80% AI-Driven, ASI by 2028
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-06
benjtodd says he doubted Anthropic's 2x research acceleration claim in its S-1, but METR reviewed the private evidence and agrees — attributing 80% of the acceleration to AI. METR's chart shows benchmark scores growing at 1.9x the pre-Oct-2025 rate once internal models are included. Extrapolating, recursive self-improvement may have started October 2025, with an intelligence explosion by late 2027 and ASI around spring 2028.
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