METR report: RSI already accelerating AI progress ~2x, matching AI 2027's March 2027 mark
RyanGreenblatt · x · 2026-11-06
Ryan Greenblatt breaks down a report on AI R&D automation (recursive self-improvement): the report authors estimate AI progress has recently been accelerated by around 2x, largely attributed to RSI—with large uncertainty and some redacted evidence pointing to even larger acceleration.
Reconciling with AI 2027: that report's numbers are about AI automation speedup for AI software R&D, not overall progress. Greenblatt estimated the current automation speedup and matched it to AI 2027's modeling; converting to overall acceleration puts the 2x point somewhere between February and April 2027, consistent with AI 2027's March 2027 timeline.
He also cites a 4.5x estimate for how much AI is currently accelerating software R&D itself.
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