METR estimates AI is already accelerating AI development by roughly 2x
harris_edouard · x · 2026-11-06
METR released a report with three subjective risk conclusions, headline one: as of Oct 2026, the pace of capability growth on well-specified tasks is likely about 2x what it was from Mar 2024 to Oct 2025 (highly uncertain, 1.3x–3x plausible). Commenting on it, Edouard Harris argues AI may already be accelerating AI development by 2x — not full RSI yet, but "the machine is waking up."
Related event: METR Finds AI Has Roughly Doubled Anthropic's AI R&D Speed(12 posts)→
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