US productivity grew 3.6% annualized last quarter, now 2.7% above CBO forecast
erikbryn · x · 2026-11-05
Economist Erik Brynjolfsson points to fresh evidence of a productivity inflection: US productivity grew at a 3.6% annual rate last quarter, more than double the 1.5% average from 2007-2019. A chart from Jason Furman's Econvitals shows nonfarm business labor productivity now runs 2.7% above the CBO's January 2020 forecast, made before the pandemic or LLMs. Brynjolfsson says the numbers strengthen his position in his bet with Bob Gordon on 2020s productivity growth.
Related event: US Productivity Surges, Economists Debate AI Impact(2 posts)→
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