AI industry's new defaults: 15-25% of planned compute at risk, Anthropic IPO haircut
sytelus · x · 2026-11-05
sytelus lays out new default economic expectations for AI: 15-25% of planned compute may not come online; big tech like Google will cut capex following Microsoft's model; chip earnings/FCF look absurd for their price; some neoclouds fail with no net growth; frontier model releases get rarer as firms keep capabilities internal; Anthropic IPOs but with a possible 20-25% valuation haircut.
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