Prediction Market Roundtable: Traders Share 5 Money-Making Strategies
devanshmehta · x · 2026-11-05
The third roundtable focused on prediction-market trading strategies, with attendees—many of them traders—sharing five ways to make money:
- "Nothing ever happens": find markets panicking over hantavirus or similar and bet against them.
- Long-tail markets + trust the polls: buy Farage when a Farage vs Count Binface market sits at 90-10; sizing and a process for finding markets (e.g. Polymarket's review channel) matter.
- Copy trading: Kalshi shows bettors' track records, so follow them—or invert bad ones.
- Oracle manipulation: post a malicious answer to UMA for $750, watch bots auto-trade on it, take the opposite position; profit above $750 means it worked.
- Arbitrage: exploit odds discrepancies across platforms for the same event.
The quoted thread also covers objective vs subjective markets and whether objective markets even need an oracle or could be resolved by a bot/AI.
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